Navy SEAL Pass Rate, Attrition, and Injury Stats: What the Data Really Means for You

BUD/S isn’t just “tough.” It breaks most men. But how tough, exactly? And more importantly—why do so many fail?

Today, we’re diving into official Navy data to break down attrition rates, injury stats, pass/fail patterns, and the truth behind Hell Week and beyond. You’ll learn what really happens in those 24 weeks, when most candidates quit, and what the numbers say about who makes it.

We’ll cover it all using insights from Navy reports, internal investigations, and peer-reviewed studies. And at the end, I’ll show you how I train my athletes to beat these odds with practical training templates built around the same metrics the Navy tracks.

Let’s get to it.

1. Understanding the Navy SEAL Selection & Training

The Navy SEAL assessment, selection, and training pipeline is 60 weeks long. It starts with the 7-week-long Navy Special Warfare Orientation (NSWO). Following NSWO, candidates begin the 21-week Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) program.

BUD/S is further divided into three 7-week-long phases, with Phase I being the most notorious. Phase I is popularly categorized into three sub-parts:

• The first three weeks of Phase 1 are colloquially known as “pre-Hell Week.” Instructors focus on preparing the candidate for what’s about to happen next.
• The fourth week is the most challenging, known as the infamous “Hell Week.” It exposes candidates to extreme stress in a controlled environment, progressing over 26 individual evolutions in roughly ~108.5 hours.
• The remaining three weeks, referred to as “post-Hell Week,” focus on rest and rehabilitation before selected candidates move to Phase II.

Phases II and III (combined, 14 weeks) focus on preparing selected candidates for the SEAL Qualification Training (SQT) pipeline. Phase II, the dive phase, includes Pool Comp as well—a stressful series of underwater drills designed to test your composure and problem-solving under extreme pressure. Think of it as a lesser Hell Week, but underwater.

After BUD/S, selected candidates proceed to the 19-week SEAL Qualification Training (SQT), followed by 12 grueling weeks of Advanced Training Command (ATC).

Source: US Navy SEAL

2. BUD/S Attrition Rates (as of 2023)

Why am I talking about attrition instead of passing, you ask? Because it’s more important to figure out what goes wrong and be prepared for it within your physical and psychological capabilities. This is how I always train my athletes and we produce great results. And don’t worry, we’ll talk about passing rates and draw conclusions from that data as well.

In March of 2023, there was an investigation into the Navy SEAL selection pipeline, primarily into the BUD/S portion of it. The declassified report from that investigation is a goldmine of interesting BUD/S attrition and injury data. 

According to the investigation, the average BUD/S class starts with 148 candidates. By the end? Only about a third make it through, and that’s being generous. Nearly half of the candidates drop out during the first three weeks before even reaching Hell Week. That’s right. Around 45% attrition before the real test even begins.

• 29% Drop on Request (DOR): Most guys simply ring the bell. They decide this life isn’t for them.
• 9% Medical Rolls: Injuries, illness, or other issues that require them to temporarily leave training.
• 5% Performance Rolls: Failed a timed evolution or couldn’t meet a standard, but may return.
• 2% Performance Drops: These candidates are fully dropped from the pipeline due to performance.
• Less than 1% are removed for administrative or medical disqualifications.

If they do make it to Hell Week, they’re still not safe. 21% of the remaining candidates drop during Hell Week, mostly by choice.

• 15% Drop on Request: They tap out in the middle of the storm.
• 5% Medical Rolls: Often hypothermia, stress fractures, or more serious medical issues.
• 1% Performance Rolls

Combine those numbers, and the total damage is brutal. By the end of BUD/S Phase I, the attrition rate is about 66% according to the Navy investigation. That is, two-thirds of the original class are gone within the first seven weeks of BUD/S.

And this is not speculation, this is data spanning over two decades of classes. Once you’re through Phase 1, your odds skyrocket, but that’s a big “if.” For Phase II (dive), the combined attrition and roll rate is about 5%, while Phase III sees about 3%.

To put it simply, most candidates who make it past Hell Week will likely finish BUD/S, though some may be rolled to later classes due to injury or performance delays rather than dropped entirely.

On average, 68% of candidates are removed across all phases of BUD/S. Interestingly, there’s a big disparity within the attrition as well. Officers participating in BUD/S only contribute to 39% of dropouts (attrition), while Enlisted candidates have a 79% attrition rate. It means nearly 8 out of 10 enlisted candidates will not finish BUD/S.

Across U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), attrition is high everywhere, but BUD/S stands out, especially for enlisted:

• Air Force CCT/CRO/STO/TACP: ~60–74%
• Marine Raiders (MARSOC): 59% (Officers), 73% (Enlisted)
• Army Special Forces (Green Berets): ~65%
• 75th Ranger Regiment: RASP I at 47%, RASP II at 28%

Other than this investigation, we also have historical attrition data for Navy SEAL Assessment from the [unclassified] USSOCOM’s Implementation Plan.

While BUD/S itself experiences attrition rates of around 66–68%, the full SEAL Qualification pipeline, from entry through SQT, tells a more sobering story. Between 2007 and 2017, the Navy saw 9,917 male candidates enter SEAL Qualification training. Of those, only 2,672 graduated, which is a graduation rate of just 27%, with an overall attrition rate of 73%.

Year-over-year data confirms the consistency of this challenge, with attrition percentages fluctuating between 62% and 81%. Even in years with a higher number of entries, like 2007 and 2010, dropout rates remained steep. What this tells us is clear: success in the SEAL pipeline isn’t just about making it through BUD/S. As a candidate, you MUST maintain performance across the 60 weeks of demanding schools and qualifications.

3. Why did BUD/S attrition spike in 2021 – 2022?

Historically, around 30% of candidates would DOR (Drop on Request) in the three weeks before Hell Week. However, during the 2021-22 period, those numbers jumped to 48–49%. The prevailing theory at the time was that the candidates were simply weaker.

However, the truth turned out to be different post-investigation:

• Increased Training Intensity: Although instructors didn’t officially alter the evolutions, they reportedly gave “less slack” by pushing candidates to the limit without sufficient recovery time. Civilian mentors observed that the cadre had lost sight of the purpose of evolutions, focusing more on attrition than on training or team-building.
• Intensity Creep: Demanding evolutions that were historically tapered by mid-Week 3 were now running all the way up until Hell Week. It left candidates physically drained right before starting Hell Week.
• Leadership Culture: Some cadre viewed weeding out candidates early as a goal, rather than testing and developing them. One instructor reportedly said, “I was trying to weed them out in the earlier weeks,” a statement that raised several red flags.
• Class Culture & Curriculum Changes: Several other factors contributed:
  • Removal of SEAL candidates from “800-series” boot camps (which historically had more cohesive prep).
  • Transition from BUD/S Prep to NSWO, with a curriculum overhaul and location change.
  • The addition of “ruck runs” and other physically brutal evolutions starting in 2015.
  • Overzealous student leadership, where candidate officers created extra physical demands at the expense of rest and recovery.
• Changing Candidate Profiles: Civilian mentors observed a generational shift. It was noted that candidates were often more emotionally intelligent and academically sharp, but many lacked the “grit” for real physical discomfort or sustained stress under pressure.

All of this created a perfect storm, and even the most committed candidates struggled. A review of over 400 DOR requests during this period showed:

• 49% cited physical limitations
• 42% cited loss of motivation
• Only 8% blamed injuries

And yes, the overwhelming majority of dropouts (~91%) reported either a physical or mental barrier. Eventually, by Classes 354 and 355, things started to normalize again, thanks to leadership intervention and internal audits after the investigation.

For candidates preparing in 2025 and beyond, it’s a clear reminder that your success doesn’t just depend on how fast you can run or how many pull-ups you can do. It’s about how well you handle cumulative stress. Many of the failures during that era came from a lack of sustainable conditioning, inadequate experience with physical discomfort, and poor pacing under compounding fatigue.

If you want to make it through BUD/S, train not just to survive workouts, but to thrive in the grey zone where you’re cold, tired, sore, and still expected to lead. Don’t worry, I’ll tell you exactly how to train as well.

4. What medical issues does BUD/S cause?

According to the Class 352 investigation report, BUD/S medical staff documented over 200 musculoskeletal injuries in just the three weeks leading up to Hell Week. These include stress fractures, overuse injuries, and joint trauma. That number doesn’t even account for candidates who continue despite injury, or those who push until something breaks.

Then there’s the respiratory side. Candidates routinely suffer from swimming-induced pulmonary edema (SIPE), a sudden condition that causes blood-tinged sputum, coughing, and tightness in the chest during cold-water swimming. Between Classes 347–357, there were over 150 recorded SIPE- or pneumonia-related visits in the pre–Hell Week period alone.

The medical reality is harsh, in my opinion. By the end of Hell Week, every candidate shows extreme physical exhaustion to the point that their appearance is described in official reports as “immediately concerning to anyone unfamiliar with BUD/S.” And yet, this level of stress is considered standard, or expected, by both cadre and medical personnel alike.

Bottom line: If you’re preparing for BUD/S, you’re not just training to beat the clock or outlast the cold. You’re training to stay healthy under impossible conditions. That’s why I recommend you train smart, with prehab, durability circuits, and protocols designed to prevent issues like SIJ problems, overuse fractures, and respiratory infections.

5. What predicts success in BUD/S?

Alright, let’s talk about the factors that actually help you pass the grueling BUD/S selection and the Navy SEAL selection pipeline.

I. At BUD/S, you MUST run fast.

Between BUD/S classes 306 to 317, the Naval Special Warfare Prep School identified 8 different exercises that correlate with BUD/S success.

1. 3-mile Run
2. Shuttle Run
3. 800-meter Swim
4. Standing Long Jump
5. 5-10-5 agility test
6. 25lb Pull Up
7. Bodyweight Bench Press
8. Deadlift

Out of these 8, the greatest predictors of success in Hell Week were the 3-mile run, shuttle run, standing long jump, and 800-meter swim. And at the bottom of the list were the bodyweight bench press, deadlift, and 25lb weighted pull-up. According to the data, the effect sizes of these three were low enough to be considered statistically insignificant.

Of course, that’s not to say that strength just doesn’t matter during Hell Week and the rest of the BUD/S. It actually played a HUGE factor as well, just in a different form (more on that in the next section). That said, it is true that running well is the most crucial aspect of Navy SEAL training.

Even a minute-long difference resulted in a stark difference in odds of success. Candidates running a 7-7:20 minute mile pace for 3 miles had a 9% chance of completing Hell Week. In comparison, candidates who paced at a 6-6:20 minute mile more than tripled their chances of completing Hell Week at 30%.

The slowest candidate to complete Hell Week between classes 306 – 317 ran a 22:37 3-mile run. That’s a pace of 7:32 minutes per mile.

II. Yeah, you NEED strength and endurance too.

The requirement for strength is a bit convoluted. Based on the other charts, it doesn’t seem important. I’m personally not a fan of how the NSW fitness center organized the data, and perhaps that’s why it has since been removed from the SEALSWCC website.

What the data actually shows is that there is only a small difference in Hell Week success rates based on deadlift strength.

What is significant, though, is that the worst deadlifter to complete Hell Week was able to deadlift 1.5 times their bodyweight. Additionally, the average BUD/S candidate could do 10 weighted pull-ups with 25lbs, that’s a lot of weight. And doing more improves your odds.

So clearly, there is a minimum level of strength required to be successful.

III. Body composition also plays a crucial role.

While the data on BUD/S is not as granular, the NSW fitness director has shared some details regarding body composition (body fat, size, muscle mass, height). Those with 20% body fat had only a 12% chance of completing hell week. While those at 11% body fat had a 21% chance.

Not surprisingly, the data from the US Army also shows that a lower body fat percentage is correlated with improved performance across various physical activities, including calisthenics, running, rucking, and obstacle courses.

While you may be tempted to diet for an 8% body fat, keep in mind that it hasn’t been shared what method NSW used to test for body fat percentage. I am skeptical that the candidate’s body fat levels were so low, especially since 1,500 candidates were tested, and it’s unlikely they had the budget or ability to test them with accurate technology.

The NSW fitness director said,

“For the sample of students cited above, height and weight both correlated with the odds of completing Hell Week. Taller and heavier students were more successful than shorter and lighter students. Those averaging around 6′ 2″ and 200lbs were at least three times as likely to complete Hell Week as those averaging around 5′ 6″ and 150lbs. Successful students ran and swam faster than those who dropped before completing Hell Week, regardless of size. But the gap was even wider for the smaller students – it seems that they compensated by swimming and especially running extremely fast.”

Of course, you can’t go from 5’6 to 6’2 just like that. Luckily, there’s a caveat here. The data at Army Special Forces Assessment and Selection did show that the differences in success between heights nearly evaporate once the shorter candidates put on more muscle.

With that said, it’s also important to maintain balance and not blindly follow metrics. Ruck performance and strength are valued more highly at SFAS, so putting on muscle to the detriment of your run time is a bad idea for BUD/S.

My Recommendations

After thoroughly analyzing the data, I have identified a few key takeaways and established cardio and strength standards to aim for in Navy SEAL training.

1. First, running performance is far and away the greatest predictor of success. You want to complete your run as quickly as possible, ideally under 19 minutes for a 3-mile distance.
2. While strength is not as important at BUD/S as we found it to be for Army Special Forces Assessment and Selection, you still need to be strong. I recommend hitting a 275lb squat and at least a 335lb deadlift before shipping.
3. Third, take active measures to reduce your risk of injury. The following chart shows that in many classes, more candidates were medically rolled out of Hell Week than completed it.
4. Moving to body composition metrics, I suggest dieting to 15% and see how you feel. If you’re performing well, consider going down lower. But remember: your body percentage MUST serve your performance goals, so the moment you feel a performance hit, stop.

In my experience training candidates for special operations (including Navy SEALs), I find that most athletes are deficient in some aspect of their posterior chain. Horizontal pulling movements, such as rows and face pulls, are excellent exercises. Additionally, deadlift variations, hamstring curls, and even simple isolation exercises, such as cable external rotations and calf and toe raises, can help mitigate injury risk.

6. How to prepare for Navy SEAL Training?

Here is a beginner routine to get you prepared for Navy SEAL selection and training pipeline:

• Monday: Full Body (Strength), Intervals
• Tuesday: Calisthenics, Swim
• Wednesday: Tempo Run
• Thursday: Full Body (Strength)
• Friday: Swim
• Saturday: Swim Drills, Long Run
• Sunday: Rest

And after you’ve trained on the beginner routine for a few months, you can move on to the intermediate and advanced routine:

• Monday: Full Body (Strength), Intervals
• Tuesday: Calisthenics, Swim
• Wednesday: Tempo Run
• Thursday: Full Body (Strength)
• Friday: Swim, Zone 3 Run
• Saturday: Water Confidence, Long Run
• Sunday: Rest

Sources:

• Command investigation into the facts and circumstances regarding safety and medical oversight of Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) Class 352 (link)
• USSOCOM Implementation Plan Progress (link)